By the time South African children reach matric, many perform poorly because weak foundations were laid early in their lives. The Thrive by Five Index 2024 points out that South Africa’s learning crisis begins in the first five years of life, and that inequality is already firmly entrenched by the time children reach Grade R. Unfortunately, no amount of curriculum reform or matric tinkering can compensate for these early losses.
What the data tells us – and why it’s alarming
Among four-year-olds already enrolled in early learning programmes, only 42% are developmentally on track. The remainder are either falling behind (28%) or falling far behind (30%).
The weakest areas are also the most consequential: early numeracy and fine motor and visual-motor skills, which underpin writing, basic maths, and the ability to cope with structured classroom tasks. These are the skills schools assume children already have and struggle to teach later.
In other words, many children are expected to learn despite gaps the system has never addressed.
School readiness is not just about academics
Children performed best in early language and literacy, with 53% on track – but even here, nearly half are not ready. The picture deteriorates sharply for early numeracy (33% on track) and fine motor development (29%).
The Index also measures social and emotional readiness, an area often overlooked in policy debates despite repeated warnings from education researchers. While over half of children met benchmarks for emotional (56%) and social development (63%), this still leaves a substantial proportion entering classrooms without the self-regulation skills that crowded, under-resourced schools quietly demand.
Inequality shows up early – and predictably
The Thrive by Five data leaves little room for ambiguity: children in higher-fee programmes consistently outperform those in lower-fee settings. Fees act as a proxy for both household income and programme quality, reinforcing what analysts have long warned about – access to early learning in South Africa is still largely determined by what families can afford.
Girls outperform boys across most learning domains, a pattern later reflected in school progression and dropout rates.
Most concerning, however, are children outside the system altogether. A focused sub-study of non-enrolled children found that 82% could not perform basic age-appropriate tasks, while 18% showed moderate to severe stunting. National estimates suggest roughly one in three four-year-olds receives no early learning at all – a figure frequently cited in education reporting as a major driver of long-term inequality. By the time these children arrive at school, the gap is structural.
Why this matters now, not later
South Africa already spends a significant share of its budget on education, yet outcomes remain among the weakest in comparable middle-income countries.
Thrive by Five helps explain why: money is concentrated too late, and too little is spent where it has the highest return. This means early childhood development remains underfunded relative to its importance, even as evidence mounts that remediation later in life is expensive and ineffective.
Solutions to the many challenges in early learning
Thrive by Five does not offer silver bullets, but it points to practical, measurable shifts:
- Fix how money flows to early learning, not just how much is allocated. Reduce registration barriers, strengthen subsidy systems, and prioritise funding for low-fee and no-fee programmes where needs are greatest.
- Define and fund a basic quality package for early learning, focused on the weakest developmental areas – especially fine motor skills and early numeracy – and roll it out first in under-resourced settings.
- Shift from once-off training to sustained classroom support. Replace workshops with simple, repeatable coaching, peer learning, and routine quality checks that drive real changes in practice.
- Link learning, health and nutrition at the programme level. Use early learning programmes as local hubs for growth monitoring, nutrition support and caregiver guidance, recognising that children cannot learn if they are not healthy.
- Support caregivers without shifting blame. Strengthen home learning environments through practical guidance, access to books, and greater involvement of male caregivers, alongside programme-based support.
- Use Grade R as a recovery year, not a symbolic milestone. Focus on closing early gaps and strengthening teaching quality from Grade R through the early grades.
- Treat data as essential infrastructure. Use Thrive by Five’s three-year cycle as a public accountability tool, with provincial trend-tracking and targeted funding when progress stalls.
Thrive by Five removes any plausible excuse for inaction. What remains unclear is whether we have the political and institutional will to follow through. If South Africa is serious about fixing education outcomes, the first test is whether it is willing to act decisively before children ever enter the classroom.
