South African learners do not achieve strong outcomes in mathematics, which limits their access to tertiary study, particularly in STEM fields.
The Epoch and Optima Trusts funded the Mathematics Challenge Programme (MCP) from 2008-2022, supporting selected high-performing secondary schools to increase participation in mathematics and the number of quality passes (defined as 60% and above).
An external outcome evaluation conducted by Kelello Consulting in 2025 assessed the MCP’s relevance, coherence, effectiveness, efficiency, impact, sustainability and scalability over its 15year lifespan. The evaluation drew on National Senior Certificate (NSC) data from 2010-2022, surveys, interviews, focus groups and cost-effectiveness analysis, offering a long-term outcome evaluation of a school-led mathematics intervention in South Africa.
The findings provide insight into both what worked and the structural limits to sustaining gains in mathematics outcomes through secondaryschool interventions alone.
What the Mathematics Challenge Programme set out to do
The MCP was designed to increase participation in mathematics and the number of quality passes by supporting schools that were already performing relatively well. Rather than prescribing a uniform intervention, the programme adopted a school-led model, allowing schools to identify their own challenges and request funding for context-specific solutions, including extra teachers, tutoring, technology and classes.
Initially, the programme focused on schools with strong maths results across public, independent and fee-paying schools. Over time, this approach evolved. From 2018 onwards, the Trusts deliberately shifted their strategy to include high-performing quintile 1-3 schools and narrowed the demographic focus from “Broad Black” learners to Black African learners only.
Participation in mathematics: a protective effect
The evaluation shows that MCP schools consistently maintained higher mathematics participation rates than national averages and comparison schools. Between 2010 and 2022, approximately 71% of Grade 12 learners in MCP schools wrote maths, compared to 41% nationally.
While participation declined slightly over time, particularly after 2013, MCP schools experienced far smaller drops than non-MCP schools. The evaluators describe this as a protective effect: sustained MCP support helped shield participating schools from the broader national decline in maths participation, even if it did not continuously increase participation year on year.
In absolute terms, MCP schools outperformed all comparator groups in producing quality maths passes. Although MCP learners represented only about 2% of the national Grade 12 cohort, they contributed roughly 9% of all mathematics quality passes nationally between 2010 and 2022.
However, the evaluation also documents a clear trend: quality passes among Black learners increased strongly in the early years of the programme, peaked around 2013, and then declined steadily thereafter. This decline was more pronounced in MCP schools than in comparison schools over the same period.
The evaluators caution against simple causal explanations. Possible contributing factors include programme fatigue, regression to the mean given very high baseline performance, and systemic pressures beyond the control of schools, such as weak foundational learning in earlier grades.
Efficiency and costeffectiveness
The cost-effectiveness analysis indicates that the MCP delivered better value for money than several comparable mathematics interventions, particularly those targeting individual learners. Quintile 1-3 schools emerged as the most cost-effective in producing quality passes for Black African learners, while quintile 5 schools were most cost-effective when considering quality passes across all learners.
At the same time, the evaluation highlights significant variation across schools, with a ‘sweet spot’ emerging in which moderate funding over a long period yields relatively high numbers of quality passes. This finding underpins the recommendation for more differentiated funding models rather than uniform support.
Sustainability and scalability constraints
A central finding of the evaluation is that many of the MCP’s most effective interventions – particularly funding additional teachers to reduce class sizes – are not financially sustainable once external funding ends. Programme fatigue, dependence on donor funding and limited engagement with provincial education departments further constrain long-term sustainability.
While the school-led model offered flexibility and responsiveness, the evaluation concludes that scaling such an approach would require stronger integration with government systems, earlier intervention in the education pipeline, and greater focus on primary-level foundations in mathematics.
Key lessons for future investment
The evaluation concludes that the MCP met its original objectives of increasing maths participation and the number of quality passes, particularly in its early years. However, it also illustrates the limits of secondaryschool-focused interventions in a highly unequal education system.
The report argues that future impact is more likely to come from long-term, differentiated investment, stronger support for high-performing schools in quintiles 1-3, and earlier interventions that address foundational learning gaps before learners reach Grade 8.
